Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Random thought on Megan's random thought on Brian's random thoughts

I don't know how anybody gets their hopes up on the issue of the race being over or Hillary dropping out. She's like the terminator or Jason Voorhees, she won't die.

Even after she gives a dropping out speech (BIG IF that ever happens), I will still be nervous.


Edit: As a matter of fact, I am more nervous about the submarining that Hillary will do once Obama is the nominee than I am nervous about Rev. Wright continuing his jihad and submarining the campaign once Obama is the nominee.

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Random Thought on Brian's Random Thoughts

I saw this earlier on Obama's website and Ben Smith pointed it out tonight-- Obama has very prominently displayed a "Delegate Countdown" on his website, along with detailed map and full results (see here http://www.barackobama.com/resultscenter/index.php).
Now that Brian points it out, it does seem as though the Clinton Camp has been eerily quiet in the arena of bashing Obama AND talking up her 'big win'. Now, maybe this is because her campaign is a clusterfuck and they haven't played their cards well yet again in a campaign that will go down in history has the greatest fizzle ever. But, it seems like the narrative has continued to change in the days following PA. To me, it feels like people are starting to ignore her presence and even the fact that she is running. When I hear top headlines lately, it's always about McCain or Obama (and not just about Obama + Rev. Wright). I think the MSM may be starting to give her the Huckabee treatment. The Hillary Drop-Out Watch seems to have begun. Her absurdity has become so common and schizophrenic, the media seems to feel it doesn't even warrant constant scrutiny.
So, why do I point out the Delegate Countdown? It-- along with McCaskill's sly comment that supers have decided for Obama but just haven't come forward, Clinton Camp's softened rhethoric, and the media's changing tone and focus--makes me agree with Brian that BOTH candidates may know its over. If it were me, I wouldn't be posting a bona fide countdown on my website if I weren't pretty damn sure that I'd be able to deliver its conclusion. Countdowns are for (mostly) things that people are excited to finally reach: New Year's Eve. Lift Off. Top story on Keith Olbermann.
Does anyone else feel things are changing?

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Random Thoughts

1. Obama is the victim of his own success and very much has a closed campaign.....Obama's supporters are so enthusiastic, that I believe that as the campaign has gone on they have crowded out the undecideds and soft-Hillary voters that he needs to be talking to at his rallies and at his town halls. I also think that having all this constant positive feedback when the national narrative has gone against him for 8 weeks is affecting how he campaigns and how effective he actually is. I think this is a big reason why he is losing. I think the recent return of 'you' into his vocabulary, where he is telling voters that the campaign is about them gets him back to the Iowa days. Obama was looking out of touch with the mood of the electorate. I think because he was talking to those who agreed with him the whole time.
2. In the most devastating 8 weeks of the campaign for Obama with losses in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania, as well as Bitter-gate and Reverend Wright's jihad, and this is really bad news for the Clintons, Obama has added 41 supers to Hillary's 10. So what will happen if he wins North Carolina and Indiana? When your neophyte challenger is handed the worst 8 weeks of his political career, and your strategy depends on party insiders to hand you the nomination because they believe you are more electable, and you still lose the superdelegate battle during this time frame, it is quite an indication of where the party stands.
3. It is clearly noticeable that the Clinton campaign has taken on a softer rhetoric. I think they realize it is lost, and the key is her insistence that the party will come together and that democrats may have differences but they have nothing in common with John McCain. Maybe it is wishful thinking on my part, most likely, but none of her surrogates have been pounding Obama, like they should have, since her Pennsylvania win. None.

Maybe all the reports of Obama having locked up all the remaining elected officials on the hill, with Claire McCaskill's quote on the subject "James Brown would say "I feel good"", really is accurate. They would have gone to Hillary and said we're going with Obama first. What they're being called is "undeclared superdelegates" instead of "uncommitted superdelegates". As in, they're all for Obama and everyone knows it, but it isn't public.

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"Red Bull? What is that?"

New National Polls

Out of touch....

'Sin' Tax

War with Iran

The Pentagon is going to argue that Iranians are killing Americans in Iraq. Which they probably are, and the administration is going to use this to blow up their nuclear facilities.

The new enemy is Iran in Iraq. If Iran is killing our soldiers, and it appears they are, they need to be dealt with.

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Story Obama needs to be concerned about

Mississippi Democrat distancing himself from Obama after he is attacked by The Right. The GOP/RNC will use this strategy all fall with John McCain fake-telling them to stop.

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Gas Ads

Hillary has a very good ad, while completely misleading, out right now hammering Obama on gas prices and mortgage prices:


Obama's response is good, but I don't think as good:

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Hillary Outspending On The Air

Interesting. Are the Clintons putting more on the credit card because they know they can get the party to pay off her debt to get her out of the race?

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Obama Supporters Raise 10K For Super In KY Attacked For Supporting Obama

Hot.

Check out Obama's new delegate counter which is counting down the number of delegates he needs for the nomination in relation to Hillary's.

Link

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More on the Rep endorsement from Cali

If I could ask McCain one question....

5 Superdelegates today

2 for Obama: 1 from Iowa and 1 from Indiana. The Indiana pickup strikes me as particularly good.

1 for Hillary, a union official from PA.

I think Obama drops a total of 4 today to Hillary's 2.

UPDATE: 1 more for each of them with Obama getting a California super and Hillary getting a Puerto Rico super.

Looks like each of them have a stockpile to pull from...the problem for Hillary is that she is down by 130 total delegates, and assuming his pledged delegate lead stays at 150, Hillary needs to win a substantial margin of the remaining 270 superdelegates. It is actually 200 to 70. So if Obama gets about 70 more, and Hillary doesn't cut his pledged delegate lead any further, Hillary will be denied the nomination.

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Morning Whiskey - 4/30/2008

1. Maureen Dowd - "Praying and Preying"
2. Tom Friedman - "Dumb as we wanna be"
3. McCain's healthcare plan is a joke.
4. SurveyUSA has Clinton within five in North Carolina
5. SurveyUSA has Clinton up 35 in Kentucky
6. Roger Simon on the wrongs inflicted by Wright
7. Dick Morris says Obama has an opportunity
8. Karl Rove fawns over John McCain.....read it to see the arguments we'll hear in the fall basically saying John McCain is TOO good of a man to be president.
9. Michelle Obama is going to talk about Wright today.....this will be a huge test to make humanize the impact on her family. She needs to echo everything Barack said, as any separation will be picked apart and analyzed.
10. Most of the superdelegates on the Hill have already told the campaigns who they support? If true, this is a big deal and no better time to release this than over the coming days.
11. Ben Smith makes the case, in direct contradiction to our Megan, that North Carolina's governor is a big deal endorsement for Hillary. I don't see it. The dude has no machine, no one needing his approval, and the two people running for his seat have endorsed Obama. It is only a big deal because he is a superdelegate, and she need all that she can get.
12. The 'invisible' primary.....
13. The worst news yet.....another carrier heading to the gulf. This means war with Iran......soon.
14. Al Franken is screwing up his senate run. He is currently down in the polls too.
15. The Obama's on Rachel Ray....for those of you in the dark, Rachel Ray is an average looking faux-chef on TV for average looking housewives to watch:

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Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Gas Tax Talk

Obama v. Hansborough

Seven Days Out: Carolina On My Mind

Sorry for the slow updates coming out of North Carolina on a pretty busy weekend in politics. I had to take a brief hiatus back home to Missouri for the about one millionth wedding in the past five years. Fun times drinking with old friends, but internet access at the 'rents home is so glacier slow it's maddening. Needless to say, I have been out of the loop both nationally and in North Carolina. But, I'm back and have a bit to report.
First, I arrived home to a mailer from Hillary Clinton claiming that she is "STANDING STRONG FOR NORTH CAROLINA" and "SHE WON'T BACK DOWN". Hits the issues of middle-class tax relief, health care, education, and making oil companies "pay their fair share". It's graphics, like everything else Clinton, really just looks out-dated and from the 80's. This is the first piece of blanket mail I've received from either Democrat. Hopefully Obama will put one out, although I received a robo-call from him last week reminding me to vote.
Second, Obama was in my town of Winston-Salem today. I wasn't able to attend since I wasn't aware of his trip until late last night and by then all tickets were snatched up. This should tell you that he has been enjoying huge crowds in North Carolina---apparently 18,000 in Raleigh. Aside from this, I'm sure all of you heard that he denounced Rev. Wright today while here. Making big news, and I HOPE this takes care of the issue.
A few thoughts on the Clinton endorsement by our Governor, Mike Easley. First, he's an outgoing governor that did have a lot of support while in office. However, he's an OUTGOING governor that really has very little sway. The two Democratic candidates for the governor nominee have both endorsed Obama--which tells you the direction and future of the Democratic party here in NC. So, while she may get some of his organizational benefits, I don't really think it's that big of a deal. At least, not as big of a deal as having Rendell from PA on her side. Obama also scored an endorsement today at his rally from the Mayor of Winston-Salem, whom had as recently as Friday had said he would not endorse before the primary. He now joins 43 other North Carolina mayors who have thrown their support behind Obama.
Obama has raised almost one million more than Clinton here in NC, apparently because A LOT of former Edwards supporters are coming over to Barack's corner. Does this mean Edwards will come out and endorse Obama before May 6th? As of this posting, there is the obligatory chatter on this topic and the rumor that Elizabeth is leaning towards Clinton (see today's earlier post on Halperin being a douche). However, the word is that Edwards wants a cabinet position regardless of which Dem is in the White House so doesn't want to alienate either candidate. And, I think he believes, or wants everyone else to believe, that he is much more of an 'elder-statesman'-type that will play a large role in bringing this to an end. I think by NOT endorsing, he can convey himself as fulfilling this role. I think he's just an opportunistic politician who is looking own for his own interests.
And, a sign that NC may be in play in November: I just saw that McCain will be spending MAY 6th (PRIMARY DAY) here in Winston-Salem and the day before in Charlotte. Reminder of the local political blog from the Winston-Salem Journal so you can follow over the next week if you are so inclined: http://www.journalnow.net/index.php/trailmix

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Up by 2 in Indiana....

Did the narrative for the whole campaign just shift?
  • Wright is behind him
  • Superdelegate lead deficit down under 20 in spite of bad 2 months
  • Up by 2 in Indiana
  • Hillary death watch back on?

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Obama Cuts Wright Loose

"I gave him the benefit of the doubt in the Philadelphia speech."

When you think about it, doesn't Obama look as good as possible given the situation? He didn't act like a politician, but then when a close associate acted out again, he cuts him loose which is a lot of what us would have done in our real lives. Obama looks gracious and tough, but it won't be good enough.

Video (27 Minutes: 7 minute opening statement and then Q&A):

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Second super today... and it's only 12:30 PM

Morning Whiskey - 4/29/2008

1. $10/Gallon
2. How the presidential candidates will look in ten years
3. Jeremiah goes to war
4. He was invited to speak by a Clinton supporter.....now that it is interesting
5. Another conservative favors Obama's foreign policy
6. Video of Obama's new rhetoric on the stump that aims at the fact he wasn't raised elitist
7. Hard to see this now with Reverend Wright in the process of tearing Obama to shreds, but it appears Obama's vast database of voters will make him a powerful player going forward.
8. 3 scenarios on how this ends
9. West Virginia disenfranchises independents
10. Clinton hypocrisy on trade and a factory closing
11. McCain hypocrisy on Iraq
12. Superdelegates are to blame for the destructive campaign
13. Puerto Rico IS NOT a winner take all primary
14. Andrew Romano is a good writer......
15. Bob Herbert on Wright's shadow
16. David Brooks buys into demographics and the democratic race
17. Wright throws Obama under the bus - Eugene Robinson
18. Wright helps McCain - George Will
19. Size matters....for the black guy?
20. Just plain funny. This is why we don't train animals to entertain us.

On Jeremiah Wright.....I don't know what the calculus is. If the media narrative shifts from why wouldn't Obama disown his former pastor to Obama's former pastor is trying to tear Obama down, this may have minimal impact on Obama long term. But Indiana and North Carolina vote in 7 days. The most important election day of Barack Obama's career, and Wright hits. Wright clearly did this maliciously and I fully expect the media to try and explore these motivations. It certainly doesn't help Obama. The question is how much Wright hurts. I can only hope that Wright is making himself irrelevant as a story at this moment and will not hurt Obama vs. McCain or prevent him from getting the nomination because it looks as though Wright is completely self-serving. As David Axelrod said yesterday...."He has got himself quite a platform now", which implies that Wright now has the soapbox he wants and he intends to use it no matter the consequences to Obama as Obama seems to have offended him deeply.

My personal view is that Obama's views of reconciliation that are so appealing were shaped principally by sitting in the pews and listening to Wright spread this divisive speech. So his pastor did affect his world view, just not in the way the media thinks.

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Halperin is a joke

So there is this story out from the NYTs today that has been asking "What are John and Elizabeth Edwards going to do?"

Everyone has long known that Elizabeth favors Hillary because of her healthcare mandate, and the Times article points this out. Halperin tags it as "Elizabeth Edwards favors Hillary Clinton". This isn't news as over the last two weeks, people have been saying watch for Elizabeth Edwards to show up at a Hillary event.

Thanks for that, Mark. Bang up job over there. Putting this front and center like it is a major breaking announcement is something Drudge wouldn't even do.

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Monday, April 28, 2008

$700,000

Hillary backed 527 is spending the above amount on a negative attack ad campaign against Obama in Indiana.

It is going to focus on jobs and run in every market until next Tuesday.

Obama is running against the Clintons, their machine, the press, John McCain, Reverend Wright and his pending book deal, and the Republican party.

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2 Supers Today

Obama got a respected senator from New Mexico and Hillary, curiously, got North Carolina's governor.

Apparently North Carolina's governor has long thought to favor Hillary, but I do find it interesting that he was a former Edwards backer and he decided to come out now just as the winds seem to be at Hillary's back.

Obama has been having a poor 2 months news cycle wise, but this last week is particularly bad. I think that he is giving off the appearance of having a glass jaw because he can't attack Hillary at all because he needs to get the support of her coalition once she leaves the race. If he were to attack her, he would alienate all of her supporters. But not fighting back fulfills Hillary's argument that he can't stand up against John McCain in the fall. I think he needs to be fighting McCain daily and hammering him hard.

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"Skanky-Gate"

Politicalinaction's favorite reporter just called Hillary skanky on MSNBC because Hillary dropped the "we can even do it in the back of pickup truck" line.

UPDATE: A.B. tells politico.com it was all a misunderstanding and mix up in the studio. You do see some of this when the video starts as A.B.'s name pops up right before the Clinton video plays which makes no sense and clearly something was wrong in the control room.

A.B.'s weekly videoblog...is it her last?

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A good man brought down by those around him....

Jeremiah Wright is swiftboating Barack Obama. Jeremiah Wright is going to lose Indiana for Barack Obama. Jeremiah Wright is going to lose the month of May, and maybe the nomination for Barack Obama.

His first few days out from under his hate-rock have been fairly uneventful, only reigniting the story in people's minds at the worst possible moment. But today, at the national press club in Washington DC, he repeated everything from AIDS was created by the government to 9-11 was the U.S.'s fault. So if him popping up again was bad, save a very good speech last night in Detroit that wasn't controversial at all and did make some good points which I raved over last night, today he just made himself toxic.

To make matters worse, his speaking tour is getting wall to wall coverage on the cable news stations.

Barack Obama stood by Jeremiah Wright when he said some really dumb stuff in the midst of a sermon. Now Jeremiah Wright comes out and calls Obama a phony. He is basically implying that Obama is just a run of the mill politician who is saying what he has too, but he really agrees with Wright. White voters hate Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson because they don't want to have the actions of their white ancestors as well as current day whites thrown back in their faces on a daily basis. To white people, Jeremiah Wright is Farrakan, Sharpton, and Jesse Jackson all rolled into one on steroids clinging to a politician they thought would help the country get past the racial divisions. As I said, toxic.

Marc Ambinder has a blurb up that says from his reporting, the one conversation Obama had with Wright did not go well. So while to us it may seem that Obama didn't throw Wright under the bus, Wright's actions post Obama's race speech seem to indicate that he did feel like he was thrown under the bus and that Obama fed the caricature of Wright. At this point, Jeremiah Wright is Barack Obama's enemy. Every word he utters and every moment he speaks out, without apologizing for his crazy-ass views which can't be defended, he is hurting Barack Obama's candidacy and making Hillary's and McCain's argument against Barack Obama.

Jeremiah Wright, to Hillary and McCain, is a gift that keeps on giving. No matter what he went through, whatever racial prejudices and hardships, he cannot comport all of those views onto white society. That is what he is doing and that is why he is problem.....white people don't like being lumped in with other white people who are racists. Every moment Jeremiah Wright speaks, that is what the voters Barack Obama is trying to woo hear.

In "telling his side", Jeremiah Wright is slowly ending Barack Obama's candidacy. He needs to be dealt with by Barack Obama. He was given one chance.....and he has used it to further imperil Barack Obama's candidacy. In theory, he is making it easier for Obama to neutralize Wright as a political issue because it now looks as though Jeremiah Wright is stabbing Barack Obama in the back. That is the only silver lining.

And for those of you wondering my personal view of Wright? I think he is a gifted but flawed man. He is an amazing speaker, but it seems as though every time he makes you say "wow" he makes you say "oh no". I can see how Obama stayed at the same church, as he took the good with the bad. But now Wright is a potent political issue destined to hurt Obama and the party.

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Morning Whiskey - 4/28/2008

1. Andrew Sullivan on Hillary's Rovian ways
2. Yglesias on Clinton hypocrisy on Michigan
3. Elizabeth Edwards on the poor campaign coverage
4. George Will has questions for Obama
5. Dionne says Obama has to overcome traditional Democratic obstacles
6. Crowley on Obama's Iraq plans
7. Zakaria on McCain v. McCain
8. Hat tip to Rikyrah: If Clinton can't run a campaign, what about the White house?
9. NYTs: Obama is making small changes to his campaigning style to win Indiana
10. McCain continues to attack Obama on multiple fronts each day, and if any of you have noticed his press shop's style, anytime Obama levels a charge they call him out of touch, a liberal, or say he doesn't know what he is talking about. It is very very effective, right or wrong, but also shows why we need to end this thing so we can start putting McCain on the defensive(a position he is not good at) on multiple fronts.
11. WTF? Read this dailykos story on the Canadian government's concerted effort to sabotage Obama.
12. Obama is locking up North Carolina today with a few stops.
13. The RNC/GOP has begun using Obama in attack ads against down ticket Democrats. This is a big big deal and will give superdelegates some pause in my opinion.
14. Maureen Dowd's Sunday column again focuses on Obama seemingly like he doesn't want to fight for the nomination, which I believe and I think people can sense. Obama seems like a logical person. If this is the case, he knows he has this thing locked up no matter what, so I think the daily grind is wearing on him. Where the Clintons have a lifetime of Clintonian legacy to defend and rewrite on a daily basis. I don't think Obama necessary realizes that he is coming off weak-willed and half interested.
15. Bayh is Hillary's equalizer....yeah, just like Casey was Obama's in Pennsylvania. I fell for the Casey trap. Rendell and his machine were a big part of her victories there. Senators don't have the same machine, and if you have noticed, Bayh takes great pains to not attack Obama and instead promote Hillary. Why? I think that he wants to be on Obama's VP short list, and I think that he knows Indiana may be in play in November as well as that Obama may very well win his primary next Tuesday.

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Beats you need.....

"A Change Is Gonna Come" - Sam Cooke 1964; Jeremiah Wright 2008

Why can't I find Wright's amazing speech in Detroit? It isn't posted anywhere at all. It was a great speech and it needs to be propagated as it may accrue to Obama's benefit.

Thanks to Pepe for the video....apparently adding 'Detroit' to the search hindered my results. By the by, I love the police barrier tape used by Fox News and their subliminal message department:
Part 1

Part 2:


Sam Cooke - "A Change Is Gonna Come"


UPDATE: So apparently I spoke to soon, as Wright went out today and assailed everyone including Obama...with his security detail provided by Farrakan no less. He has decided to reappear at the worst possible time for Obama and generally expand on his controversial quotes before by repeating them. Not good.

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Settle Down

Jesus, what is Matt Stoller so worked up about? The very people that Obama can't get to vote for him, blue collar democrats, watch Fox News religiously. The genius of Fox News is that only people on the far left think it is a bastion of right wing talking points. Instead, it cloaks itself in patriotism and says fair and balanced. These voters Obama has trouble with were his audience today.

But also independents and Republicans. For months, Wallace has been mocking Obama for being too scared to come on Fox News. Obama was being defined as weak to these key voter groups, which he will need to win in future primary contests and against McCain in November.

Whether we hate Fox News and find it reprehensible doesn't matter. What matters is that voters we will need to bring over to our side, or keep from going to McCain, do watch and lend credence to Fox News.

Obama has now made it much more difficult for Fox News to spew its vitriol as now part of its audience will view its attacks as unfair. It has to temper its coverage, which only helps Obama and hurts McCain.

This needs to be encouraged as it only helps democrats and hurts republicans to expose those who only know a caricature of Obama to the actual man himself. Just as he only ascends in the polls whenever he campaigns, so too will he win over some of Fox's audience. This means a ripple effect that you need to recognize and get used to real quick. Obama should do Limbaugh as well.

What happened today on Fox is that Fox backed down and wouldn't attack Obama to his face. It is only a good thing.

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Sunday, April 27, 2008

Move the convention up?

Why can't the democrats move their convention up to the beginning of August or mid-July?

Think about how many problems this solves: an extra month of campaigning as the nominee.

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Obama vs. Bill Clinton

"He doesn't like Obama."

Bill Clinton knows that he is a failed president in the history books if Obama wins. Presidency of tawdry scandals and the failure to get his wife elected largely attributed to Bill Clinton's gaffes as much as Hillary's is how the Clinton legacy will be remembered.

Bill Clinton being dismissive of Obama and not recognizing the threat he posed is certainly a factor as well if this story is accurate.

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The Early Days....

Why Obama is leading and what he needs to get back to to win both the nomination and the presidency is in the videos below. The Clintons have succeeded in getting him to get down in the mud with them. These videos are why he is in the position he is in. If he wants to close her out in 8 days....this is what he has to return to:

Iowa:


New Hampshire(in defeat no less):


South Carolina:


I think everyone can agree that the Obama in those videos is not the same as the candidate of the last 2 months. He will only defeat the Clintons if he can return to form. If he can't, he might very well lose Indiana, North Carolina, and the month of May. It is time to step on her neck using the very ability that brought him ever so close to the nomination. The Obama in those videos is the closer. The Obama in those videos is the giant killer. The Obama of the last few weeks is just another politician....and Hillary always beats him hands down on the 'another politician' metric.

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Dick Morris on the race

McCain leaves out a key detail

Taking you back to 2006

Obama on Fox News Sunday

Huffington has the video and analysis. Looks like it wasn't that confrontational. I think it is good for Obama to go into these places that are normally hostile to him because when he doesn't he gets defined by them.

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DNC Taking On McCain

Osama Bin Laden endorses John McCain

Joe Klein responding to McCain's insistence that Hamas wants Barack Obama as president.

Osama Bin Laden wants the U.S. to continue its occupation in Iraq because it does two things for him: keeps the pressure off of his base of operations in Pakistan and Afghanistan because we're tied up in Iraq; and helps draw people to and legitimize his cause because of muslim outrage at our actions in the middle east. It also proves his point that we want to control Muslim lands and resources every day we occupy Iraq.

The invasion of Iraq was the best thing that ever happened to Al Queda. John McCain wants to continue the war there for 100 years or more.

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Fox News Sunday

What is going on today?

Obama's schedule is to be announced? He had events on Saturday and he has events lined up Monday and Tuesday, but nothing public on Sunday? He also taped the fox news interview set to air later today on Saturday. What does this mean? Why would he have no public events announced? What I'm getting at is.....what is he planning? Is this finally going to be Al Gore? John Edwards? Al Gore and Jimmy Carter?

All I'm saying is that this is very odd.

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Say it ain't so, John...

CBS Profile of the Obama Campaign

Obama 3 on 3

Obama adds a super

Arizona superdelegate

Doesn't anyone else get that he is daily dropping supers from states he didn't win, and that they're actively sending a message to other supers that it is OK to endorse him for the good of the party over what your state voted?

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Saturday, April 26, 2008

Every day this goes on hurts our chances in November

Barack Obama has won the nomination and should start planning for the general. Hillary Clinton should drop out of the race immediately if she wants the Democrats to win in November. At this moment, the Democratic race has reached a point of diminishing returns. Hillary Clinton toughening Barack Obama up now hurts our chances. It was helpful, bu not any longer. It is a good thing that Jeremiah Wright, Ayers and the Weather Underground, and Tony Rezko have all come out now and not in October.

Largely, it is the media's fault that she is continuing. They continue to give the impression to people that she can still win. They want people to believe this as then their ratings and readerships stay high. They talk about how she is only down "...a percentage or two" in the delegate count and revere the popular vote as the only metric Hillary could win by. Well, a percentage or two in a proportional delegate system with only a few hundred delegates left to choose is in fact insurmountable. So because this FACT means the race is likely over, the popular vote is the new metric they are covering. If she can only overtake him in the popular vote, she would make superdelegates think long and hard is the media's narrative. Why is the race over? Because the democratic party is not going to the nomination away from Barack Obama after he won using the rules everyone agreed to in the beginning. If they do so, the democratic party falls apart as it further disenfranchises black voters, a constituency they need in November. Also, all the people who are excited about Obama, young and old, who would otherwise not be democrats, will also be disenfranchised. The superdelegates need a good reason to do this....a really good reason.

Hillary Clinton has proven that she isn't any more electable than Obama...and I heard a great quote on Tim Russert this morning which was "...In politics, if you have to argue you're losing". So to overturn the delegate count, all Hillary has is marginal arguments. She has nothing, because of the Clinton past, in her arsenal that makes Obama any worse than her, which is essentially the case she is making to the world. What is worse, is that Obama is in a catch-22. He needs her voters in November, as does the party. He can't assail her or her husband, and all he can do is complain about her tactics, which makes him look weak and fulfills Hillary's argument.

The Obama campaign has a saying that goes something like "....don't get caught up in the idiocy of the moment". I think that is a great philosophy, but will it work? Hillary is assailing him with everything she has every day. She mocks him and laughs at him and is generally pussifying him every day. Obama is off his game and his heart isn't in it. You can tell. This is entirely understandable because he knows he has the nomination locked up. But he still has to go and out and sway voters. He then gets covered by a media that is still introducing him to general election voters in November. What does this mean? Weak, uneffective, unenthusiastic, uninterested Obama is being covered and commented on by a media that is trying to push a horserace. So Obama looks like a terrible candidate while Hillary is on her game because she has to be. That is why I'm saying everyday this goes by hurts the Democratic party, as now anything that hurts Obama hurts them.

If the nomination ends soon, this will all be ancient history the moment Obama is the nominee and she is out of the race. But if she survives May 6th, without the party moving behind Obama in the wake of Indiana and North Carolina, this is going to go all the way to June. She will win WV and Kentucky HUGE, which will be further evidence to the press that Obama has a white voter problem. No, press, Obama has a stupid redneck hillbilly problem. There are no black people in the upper midwest, west, or northeast states like Maine, NH, and Vermont. Obama is destroying Hillary in these states. But because Hillary is pushing said narrative, and the press is complicit and can't do analysis, this is what gets talked about. It needs to end now, or we will have 40 more days of this. That is 40 days of Obama being diminished; 40 days of the party being hurt; 40 days of McCain commenting on the democratic race and looking like a good alternative.

In honor of the NFL draft, where the Cleveland Browns don't pick until tomorrow unless we trade up into today's rounds, all I can think of is a crummy football analogy: This is like leaving your starters in and letting them get hurt against a team you've already put away. Hillary is trying to kneecap Obama, the media is helping, and the democratic party is letting it happen because they're getting greedy with voter registration drives and the intense interest that they think will lead to downballot success in the fall. I think they're right. It will help, but that is only if Hillary keeps it civil, which she is not doing. Hillary 2012 is in full effect. She is running to end Barack Obama's political future. No future runs at the presidency. No chance of winning in 2008. No chance of being the next democratic president and claiming the mantle from the Clintons.

What is happening everyday is about making Barack Obama unelectable in November. This will mean less house seats, less senate seats, and less state and local seats for democrats. At this moment, Hillary Clinton is succeeding famously.

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Debates

The Clinton campaign is trying to corner Obama into agreeing to a debate. She is pushing a debate style that would be just Obama and her for 90 minutes with each of them asking questions to eachother.

Obama said there will be no debate before May 6th.

This is good politics for Hillary as it makes Obama look like a wimp.

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Otherness

The race is tightening nationally

Newsweek and Gallup show everything tightening since the Pennsylvania race. At this point, he has to beat her in Indiana and North Carolina to end it all.

Interesting about Indiana? 70% of the population lives in urban areas, which should help Obama.

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Hillary gets a NH superdelegate

Why so negative?

Friday, April 25, 2008

Obama's voter drive

Jeremiah's Jihad

Jeremiah throws Barack Obama under the bus tonight on Bill Moyers. Obama was asked about it today and basically said he thinks Wright is upset with Obama's characterization of Wright's remarks. Wright tries to make it seem like Obama agrees with him and that Obama's historic race speech was just politics, i.e. phony. That is why this is so damaging.

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Article that points to the race being over.....

Looks like a huge continent of superdelegates are set to endorse Obama because they know that overturning the rules at this point will split the party and doom Hillary and down ticket races(i.e. superdelegate paychecks). It is all about the Benjamins.

Democrats do not win without black votes and the future of the party(responsibility of the superdelegates) is in peril if they tell all these new democratic registrants and college kids(70% to 30% Obama voters) to go fuck themselves.

And at the end of the day, Hillary voters aren't allowed to be disappointed and bitter because at the end of the day she got beat on the rules agreed to.

Also, the extended race is good for the party if Hillary stops running her "Hillary 2012" strategy. Why? Look at Pennsylvania. We registered 400,000 new voters in PA. The total Republican haul? 1 Million. This has down ticket ballot implications for all democrats. Why do I think Hillary is being so aggressive? Because she knows this is a democratic year and the democratic President is going to have majorities not seen in a while. That means Obama is going to follow the worst President in history with the deck stacked in his favor. He will steamroll everything through and erase the Clintons from the history books. Hillary wants to be better than Bill and knows that everything is stacked in the Democrats' favor. So not only will she be seen as one of the greatest Presidents if elected because of the electoral climate, she will one up the man who caused her 30 years of embarrassment with his womanizing. That is why she is willing to tear Obama down and the party apart. It is about her and the Clinton legacy.

Indifuckingana is up for grabs with Obama way up on McCain in pre-polling. As I said, we could nominate a retarded murdering rapist and probably beat McCain. The screwed up thing is that the only thing that jeopardizes our party and our chances is putting a Clinton on the ticket.

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Indiana ground report

DNC to hear Michigan and Florida challenges at the end of May

Major fundraiser leaving the Clinton campaign to join Obama

Obama Sits Down With Indianapolis Paper

Must Read/Listen: The Millionaire Next Door

I highly recommend this book or audiobook from Itunes(my preference as I am exceedingly lazy when it comes to reading things that are good for me). Go out and buy it now. Seriously. It explains how people who you would expect to be well off because of their possessions are not and the people who you would expect to be living check to check are actually either millionaires or on their way to be millionaires.

The reason it is good is that it gives examples and statistics of how people with fancy cars and huge homes are actually living check to check.

For example, if you want to be a millionaire at your current salary don't carry a mortgage that is more than twice your salary or your household's salary. So if you make $40,000, don't carry a mortgage that is over $80,000. All of the book's findings are statistics and examples based, which most of us can relate to in terms of people in our own lives.

By the by, double click on "Millionaire" in the post title for background info.

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Electability

MAJOR

In terms of winning the backing of the party, Obama and party are about to announce a fundraising deal that allows donors to give to both his campaign and the DNC. Some will say he is buying superdelegates. I say he is making the party much more competitive by sharing the wealth.

This, along with the national voter drive announcement expected today, which will also make it look like he is currying favor with the superdelegates by making their districts more secure or competitive, show he is shifting into general election mode.

He is also advertising in all the major remaining contests already.

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Morning Whiskey - 4/25/2008

1. Barack Obama is the nominee says the WSJ
2. The media is now on Hillary's side
3. Obama up 3 in Indiana....remember, in every contest, Hillary starts high and then declines as the campaigning goes on. Obama up 1 in Indiana. When shown these numbers on Morning Joe, Joe says "Well it looks like Hillary is going to win Indiana". Why does he say this? Because the media is fulfilling the narrative...Hillary must win therefore she will. It is in all the coverage and it is going to take Obama's best to win in Indiana and end this.....but all I'm saying is that all questions about Obama are answered if he wins North Carolina and Indiana on May 6th. It is a knock out blow winning a big state and a blue collar white state.
4. He must be a reader of this site....James Clyburn says Hillary is running her 2012 campaign and trying to make it impossible for Obama to win.
5. Obama's punctuation problem...really? That is how creative the politico is?
6. Run, Hillary, Run
7. Obama is not changing his game plan....good.
8. A major registration drive?
9. Andrew Romano is a good writer......Jenna Bush is an Obama girl?
10. Paul Krugman takes on Obama....again. Why are upper income big city writers who have no idea what we in the midwest deal with on a daily basis so condescending that they feel they have to "speak" for us?
11. 7 ways to fix Obama's image problem....if you believe Obama has an image problem.
12. MUST READ: Peggy Noonan on Obama's problem with America
13. Obama is going on Fox News Sunday after punishing them for two years
14. Joe Klein: The incredible shrinking democrats
15. Obama's Pennsylvania primary night speech:



UPDATE: Fixed link one. Thanks to pepe for pointing my error out.

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Thursday, April 24, 2008

Wesley Snipes Going to Jail?

3 years for not paying his taxes. He is an actor, which the last time I checked meant he was a public figure....and you don't file your taxes?

Why is he going to jail though? Shouldn't the penalty be interest not jail time?

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WTF?

Jeremiah Wright goes on Bill Moyers 10 days before N.C. and Indiana and he wasn't even asked? He sought out them? This is reviving the Wright controversy at the worst possible time for Obama, and the shit he is saying makes Obama look like a phony and makes Obama look like he agrees with all of Wright's views.

What the fuck was he thinking?

At this point....cut his ass loose and back over him 10 times with the bus. Dude is unrepentant.

You can't explain away "god damn america" or "the u.s. gov't created the aids virus to kill black people". It is just stupid and almost makes it look like he wants Obama to lose for not backing him up.

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Prominent Obituary

Old Bill Clinton v. New Bill Clinton

Pelosi Continues to Rail Against Joint Ticket

Pennsylvania actually HURT Hillary

Howard Stern Humor

In reference to Hillary manipulating the results all the time to make it look like she is ahead Howard Stern said today on his show that Hillary now thinks that black people's votes should only be counted as 3/5ths, then she would be winning.

The way she has run her campaign so far, it wouldn't really surprise me if this were to really happen.

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One superdelegate's perspective...

As much as I hate to link an article from France, here is an international superdelegate's perspective:

"We didn't want Hillary to pull out before, but now...it hasn't advanced her winning the last state she's likely to win. I can't see why she's continuing. I've personally searched my soul trying to figure it out. She's really betting on the superdelegates now. But I just don't think we have the right to make that decision."

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Carville v. Richardson

Video towards the bottom of this link.....

The Clinton campaign is full court pressing right now....why? Because she didn't cut into his delegate lead at all, and they know at the end of the day, that is the metric everyone is going to go by.

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Quick Hitters - 4/24/2008

1. The slow drip continues. Obama gets an Oregon superdelegate: David Wu of the house. Clinton now leads in superdelegates by 23. Also, while watching MSNBC, Colorado's former governor and superdelegate basically declared for Obama by saying that the delegates are all that matters...not the popular vote. I think symbolically, it is important for her superdelegate lead to be gone before Indiana and N.C. vote.
2. Obama's home state says electric cars are illegal...why?
3. Kos has the polls from the upcoming states....N.C....Obama country....Indiana...Clinton country. But there is a reason that the Clintons are spending all their time in N.C.
4. Chucky Todd points to N.C. being a huge roadblock in the Clintons' way in terms of their big state argument and popular vote argument.
5. The Clinton campaign is suing to get Michigan seated....this is their secret plan. If Michigan is seated, with any authority, then Florida MUST be seated...both of those together will vastly increase her haul in delegates and superdelegates.

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Morning Whiskey - 4/24/2008

1. Obama shifting to McCain
2. Those pesky swing states
3. "The queen of pork"
4. The Clinton campaign is saying it has received more votes than anyone.....they're counting Michigan(Obama wasn't on the ballot) and Florida(Where no one campaigned), both of which didn't count. They, and this is why they always win, are claiming they are ahead.
5. Morning Joe is now unbearable. Joe Scarborough basically asks two questions for 3 hours: "What is wrong with Obama and why can't he close the deal?" I don't know, Joe. Maybe because he is running against the leaders of the democratic party for the last 20 years. Next up....passive aggressive fuck Lanny Davis, who has been defending Hillary Clinton and her mistakes since Iowa. The Clintonites trying to count Michigan and Florida is just retarded.
6. Andrew Romano is a good writer......the popular vote doesn't add up
7. "The view from Obamaville" by Richard Wolffe
8. More on the popular vote
9. 43 superdelegates needed for Obama to wrap it up.....long diary.
10. Turning to Indiana
11. 9 Minutes of Anchorman:


Last night I posted a link to a dailykos diary about Obama having 20 supers privately committed to him. He needs to drop those all at once. No more piece mealing them one by one to slowly overtake her superdelegate lead. Drop them all now....today....to change the narrative from "What is wrong with Obama?" to "How is Hillary actually going to win this thing?"

If Barack Obama wins the nomination and becomes President, he will have been campaigning for 22 months and basically have fought two general elections.

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Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Quote of the Day - 4/23/2008

David Plouffe, who you should read the profile on in today's "Morning Whiskey", when asked what he thought about Hillary's supposed $10 Million in 24 hours "pace"(which means she hadn't actually raised $10 Million....."I guess they can now pay off some of their vendors, which I'm sure the vendors will be pleased about."

Plain funniness right there.

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Rice....

Seriously? We are rice rationing? Costco and Sams are rationing rice.

Listen, the official food choice of politicalinaction.com is Chinese food. So....screw this.

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"They see us from afar...."

The part I want you to watch, as seen on the Daily Show, and this video was posted by Hillary's campaign on youtube, is at 2:20. "Voters are part of the process...." No, Clinton campaign, they are the process and they're all that matters.

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20 Supers Privately Pledged To Obama

DailyKos diarist has the details. Apparently one of The Hill's writers was on Air America and dropped the scoop.

If Obama overtakes her in superdelegates and then wins North Carolina and Indiana....game over.....Cuntillary is done.

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MUST WATCH: PBS Strange Days On Earth

I just watched one of the most informative series i've seen in a long long time. It replays tonight at 1AM ET. It is narrated by Edward Norton and it looks at our impacts on the environment. Not global warming scary nonsense, but how our use of the environment affects things like fish stocks and pollutants that make it into our drinking water. It basically tries to tie many different things together such as coral reefs dying in Mexico because of underground freshwater rivers being polluted by the human activity above ground.

For example, given the amount of oil all of our cars spill each day of each year when we drive, it takes us 8 months to recreate the Exxon Valdez spill just from the runoff.

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New Obama Endorsements

Some thoughts on North Carolina......

In an effort to get over the hangover caused by last night's primary in PA, just wanted to focus attention on the next two primaries on May 6th. It appears that the MSM are going to ignore North Carolina since they seem to think Obama has it in the bag. It seems the real battleground will become Indiana.

However, I am getting a bit nervous about NC. Okay, okay, this may just be paranoia brought on by last night's Clinton win and listening the the new bullshit being pushed of "This race IS NOT OVER"! Many current polls have had Obama with a significant 15-20+ point lead in NC, but a SurveyUSA poll released yesterday has Obama up by only 9 points. While still a substantial lead, this poll indicates that NC may not the blowout people expect. True, this may just be an outlier and his lead could very well materialize over the next two weeks to a 20 point margin. However, since last night, I've heard a very low-level of chatter that Clinton may do better here in NC than people think. I think the Obama camp poo-pooing her 10 point win in PA could backfire in NC if she does in fact keep it this close. I can imagine it now: Obama wins by 10 points and the Clintons immediately disregard it since it wasn't the blowout everyone had predicted---and the disregard conveyed using the talking points the Obama camp is using TODAY to deflect her 10pt victory. **And, if you look at the Obama prediction spreadsheet, they only predict he'll win by 8 points**

So, I'm here to report on what I'm seeing on the ground in North Carolina (I have been living in and attending graduate school in Winston-Salem, NC for the last 4 years so am by no means a thorough-bred southerner or true North Carolinian). There was a great deal of excitement and energy surrounding Obama's campaign at the beginning of April and throughout voter registration. It seems to me to have waned a bit, but this could be due to the massive attention on PA. I completely expect it to begin picking up very quickly in the next few days.

Also, Bill Clinton has been spending a lot of time in the small, rural areas of NC. Hillary has already been to Winston-Salem twice. And probably because of this, there is much more of a visible presence in the form of Hillary signs in comparison to Obama signs. Interestingly, there appears to be a serious problem emerging with people stealing Obama signs from people's yards. This is not just isolated to Winston-Salem (my sign was stolen!), but people in Greensboro and Raleigh have also had a problem. Many supporters have emailed via the listserv to urge people to call the police--although I'm not sure if I agree that making a huge deal out of this is required.

I think many people were disappointed that Obama refused to debate here in NC. While I completely understand his decision, especially after the absurdity of the ABC debate and the fact that there have been 21 DEBATES, it comes across as a snub (justifiably or not) to people here in NC. AND, I have no doubt Hillary will use this to her advantage by claiming that Obama doesn't care about North Carolina enough to debate, blah, blah, blah. And I have to tell you that I think a lot of people here are stupid enough to buy her argument.

There is also some anticipation of the campaigns taking a very negative tone in North Carolina AND a re-emergence of the racial undertones we saw in South Carolina. Already the NC Republican party has an ad up indicating that both democratic candidates for governor endorsed Obama--and that is questionable since he is associated with 'questionable people' and has the infamous "god damn america" quote from Wright. McCain apparently denounced the ad and asked the NC GOP not to air it, but the last I saw (you may have seen a lot of this at The Page and MSNBC First Read) the party is going to (not surprinsingly here in NC) go ahead with it. Maybe we'll get to hear Bill Clinton bitch about the race card being played AGAINST him again, but immediately deny ever doing so, like he did on Monday. He's really more of a douche than I ever thought before. Here's a link to the ad (and the woman at the end should tell you everything you need to know about the people in North Carolina, whom I've had the pleasure of having dealt with for the past four years):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXxkctYRAZQ

In my opinion, I think it would be dangerous for Obama to overlook North Carolina and focus solely on Indiana. Yes, I'm pretty confident he will win NC. But in order to prevent the bullshit that you know the Clintons will spin, I think he needs to win HUGE. Especially if Indiana is close.

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Morning Whiskey - 4/23/2008

1. Obama gets an Oklahoma superdelegate - the governor of a state Hillary won big after she won PA big.....Hillary and Bill just said uh oh.
2. Looks like the final margin was 8-9 points
3. Hillary raised a bunch of money last night they say....$2.5 Million
4. The Clinton campaign is saying the race has fundamentally shifted and that they're back
5. She picked up 12 delegates and 200,000 votes.
6. Morning Joe is very very very very happy
7. Maureen Dowd says Obama will never get rid of Hillary alone.....I disagree. It is much more likely that he will win in Indiana than it ever was he would win Ohio or Pennsylvania.
8. The narrative is now "Why can't Obama put her away, and their examples are New Hampshire, Tsunami Tuesday, Ohio and Texas, and Pennsylvania? Each state Hillary had the machine and started with a 20 point lead which Obama cut in half. As for Tsunami Tuesday, she was favored and he battled her to a draw. It is a moronic argument.
9. Profile of Obama's nerdy strategist and his approach to do this all along.
10. Why the race is over...which isn't going to be recognized in the media until about Monday:


Light posting today as I'm not going to lend credence to the Clinton spin. Last night and this morning Hillary and McCauliffe refused to be pinned down on a metric. Not delegates(they've already lost that) and not necessarily the popular vote(because they won't win that). So they're trying to run on some shifting argument that will sway party leaders...which is...drumroll please...Obama is unelectable in swing states because she has won Ohio and Pennsylvania(Michigan and Florida don't count)...lest she forget Obama's Iowa, Virginia, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri wins. It is all BS, but my take is that maybe this slow death is the only real way to rid the party of the Clintons forever, and I think the table is set right now for Obama to be giving a massive victory speech in Indiana in two weeks. I'm not talking a squeeker in Indiana, I'm talking 10+ points and close to 20+ points in North Carolina. Think back, if he beats her in Ohio and Texas...she stays in because she is making the "I am more electable and delegates don't matter" argument anyway. She has all spring to hit him. Pennsylvania happens and she has six weeks of killing him and still he does better among voter groups that were turned off to him in Ohio. But what does this mean? Hillary's negative tone and the time spent doing what she was doing has made everyone uneasy. She hasn't raised significant doubts about Obama, while she is losing popular vote and delegates chances. So two more weeks to go until Indiana, which sets up for Obama much much better, after all the attacks, after all the carping from Hillary. What happens if he wins Indiana? I think it solidifies the Clinton legacy as not drags on the democratic party. All I'm saying is that the storyline is now perfect for Obama to prove her wrong and eliminate all her chances at a popular vote victory. Remember, her supporters were saying that the popular vote was the last straw before they would switch up for Obama. The table is set for him to bounce her from the race. This was not the case in Pennsylvania as he was never expected to win there.

Anything big happens I'll post it. My outside bet? A bunch of supers, maybe 10, announce for Obama.

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Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Obama Spreadsheet Predictions

Obama on now

He needs to knock this out of the park....

Obama's speech....more of Iowa in there. He clearly seems more comfortable being out of Pennsylvania.

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Ouch.

Not the story the Clinton campaign wanted coming out of Pennsylvania.... From the NYTs

The Low Road to Victory

The Pennsylvania campaign, which produced yet another inconclusive result on Tuesday, was even meaner, more vacuous, more desperate, and more filled with pandering than the mean, vacuous, desperate, pander-filled contests that preceded it.

Voters are getting tired of it; it is demeaning the political process; and it does not work. It is past time for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to acknowledge that the negativity, for which she is mostly responsible, does nothing but harm to her, her opponent, her party and the 2008 election.

If nothing else, self interest should push her in that direction. Mrs. Clinton did not get the big win in Pennsylvania that she needed to challenge the calculus of the Democratic race. It is true that Senator Barack Obama outspent her 2-to-1. But Mrs. Clinton and her advisers should mainly blame themselves, because, as the political operatives say, they went heavily negative and ended up squandering a good part of what was once a 20-point lead.

On the eve of this crucial primary, Mrs. Clinton became the first Democratic candidate to wave the bloody shirt of 9/11. A Clinton television ad — torn right from Karl Rove’s playbook — evoked the 1929 stock market crash, Pearl Harbor, the Cuban missile crisis, the cold war and the 9/11 attacks, complete with video of Osama bin Laden. “If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen,” the narrator intoned.

If that was supposed to bolster Mrs. Clinton’s argument that she is the better prepared to be president in a dangerous world, she sent the opposite message on Tuesday morning by declaring in an interview on ABC News that if Iran attacked Israel while she were president: “We would be able to totally obliterate them.”

By staying on the attack and not engaging Mr. Obama on the substance of issues like terrorism, the economy and how to organize an orderly exit from Iraq, Mrs. Clinton does more than just turn off voters who don’t like negative campaigning. She undercuts the rationale for her candidacy that led this page and others to support her: that she is more qualified, right now, to be president than Mr. Obama.

Mr. Obama is not blameless when it comes to the negative and vapid nature of this campaign. He is increasingly rising to Mrs. Clinton’s bait, undercutting his own claims that he is offering a higher more inclusive form of politics. When she criticized his comments about “bitter” voters, Mr. Obama mocked her as an Annie Oakley wannabe. All that does is remind Americans who are on the fence about his relative youth and inexperience.

No matter what the high-priced political operatives (from both camps) may think, it is not a disadvantage that Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton share many of the same essential values and sensible policy prescriptions. It is their strength, and they are doing their best to make voters forget it. And if they think that only Democrats are paying attention to this spectacle, they’re wrong.

After seven years of George W. Bush’s failed with-us-or-against-us presidency, all American voters deserve to hear a nuanced debate — right now and through the general campaign — about how each candidate will combat terrorism, protect civil liberties, address the housing crisis and end the war in Iraq.

It is getting to be time for the superdelegates to do what the Democrats had in mind with they created superdelegates: settle a bloody race that cannot be won at the ballot box. Mrs. Clinton once had a big lead among the party elders, but has been steadily losing it, in large part because of her negative campaign. If sh