Thursday, December 4, 2008

My oil conspiracy......

I do not believe the oil markets are telling us the truth. The sudden rise in oil, followed by the sudden collapse, are just too coincidental for everything to be on the up and up. When viewed from a far, meaning outside of 'supply and demand', it seems to me that the oil companies were trying to maximize their returns before having to cut prices dramatically to boost Republican chances in November. I was called a fool when I said, in July, that gas would be $2 by election day. I said that the oil companies would try and help McCain win by taking the gasoline worry off of the minds of the American public...but the oil companies lost and the drive by media fired everyone up about the cratering economy. Now, faced with Obama, Democratic majorities, and a mandate for real change, oil has fallen precipitously. My question is why....and I believe the answer makes the oil companies out to be nothing more than criminal.

Oil was $150 a barrel in July, and gasoline was over $4 a gallon in late July of this year. Barack Obama had just returned from his successful overseas trip, and he was 10 points ahead of John McCain. Then oil and gas prices began to fall and basically halved themselves by election day. I believe the oil companies were trying to take gasoline off the minds of consumers so they wouldn't elect Obama, and as many Democrats. While that is criminal in and of itself, whatever, what I am more concerned about is how far oil has fallen since Obama won. I believe the oil companies think they're fighting for their very survival. I think they view the incoming Obama administration as radically dangerous to their business models. I think that the drop in prices right now is an effort by oil companies to take away the public will for green energy. I myself have been a victim of their nefariousness. I drive a pickup, and it gets decent gas mileage. But even now I'm not even thinking about how much I spend on gas or drive, when all summer with gas at $4 a gallon I religiously watched my total mileage each day. I've even caught myself looking at Hummers and Ford F150s the other day, thinking how it wouldn't be that much more to drive one of those. I was astonished at myself given how much of a gasoline Nazi I was over the summer. If the drop in prices put fuel efficiency on the back burner, I know it done the same for Joe the Plumber.

I don't believe this is a result of supply and demand, but that this is blatant manipulation by the oil companies. Prices don't sky rocket in a global slowdown, given that a report came out last week that said our economy has been in a recession for over a year, then suddenly plummet. Sure, we can say the world was still booming, but we use 25% of the oil. If we are in a recession, oil should not go up. It means we aren't buying Chinese products, therefore they need less oil. The oil companies are doing this because Obama has 2-3 initiatives he can implement immediately when he gets into office. He'll get his way with hardly any pushback from Republicans as long as he includes them in the process. The first is going to be an economic recovery package of some kind. My guess is that Paulson leaves Obama some money from the remaining $350 Billion, but not enough to really do anything, which forces the Democrats to pass a new bill, which Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid will load with welfare giveaways, union giveaways, 'training programs', and other complete wastes of money when the money should be given directly to you and I in a rebate check. I'll spend my money better than my government will. For example, the American people have already rejected the bailout of the Big 3 by buying Hondas and Toyotas. The second is going to be Iraq, continuing the gains there, but funding veteran's healthcare and redeploying and reconstituting our force in Afghanistan. Everyone has pretty much agreed to this already, but the Republican genie is going to say this is one of his wishes. So that leaves one more initiative, combat energy independence or healthcare. If the oil companies can remove the problem of oil and gas prices from the American mind, not only will they take away Obama's political capital, but they can then say any Obama energy initiative will return prices back to July, and blame any future price hikes by them on Democrats. They're trying to make universal healthcare reform more appealing to Obama than revamping our national energy policy.

To get around this, Obama could group all the domestic stuff into one big stimulus package....take care of the healthcare and energy monkey while stimulating the economy. Put the energy lobby up against fixing the economy. My personal opinion is that within 6 weeks we will see $.99 a gallon gas. Thankfully, when asked 2 weeks ago if that the fall in oil put energy independence on the back burner in light of all that is of pressing need to the country, Obama responded that now that prices have dropped, it is even more pressing, so we can use this time of price relief to our benefit.

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7 Comments:

Blogger rikyrah said...

I posted this question a couple of weeks ago. Why the hell was gas my way 1.93, when less than six months ago, it was over 4 bucks?

IMO, nothing had changed.

The Chinese still needed oil.

The Indians still needed oil.

The USA had NOT opened up any new refineries.

So what the fuck happened to the price of oil.

I have to admit it - I thought you were wrong about it going down to 2 bucks a gallon . I remember that post. I thought 3 dollars a gallon, and that they would think it'd be enough to help McCain.

I think this is something Henry Waxman should investigate.

12:49 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are simply wrong.

It's simple economic fact, just like gravity is a fact in the physical realm-- market prices are determined by consumers and sellers. The big exception is obviously when you're trading with something that simply isn't stable. Oil has -not- changed significantly in price, however the value of your dollars has (1). Mostly everything in Washington is paid for by using the Federal Reserve to print the money for it, if $2 trillion pillaged away in taxes aren't enough. In the last eight years, with the foolish war in Iraq, along with an increasingly welfare state, the printing press has been overheating with use. Tack on $1 trillion dollars in planned expenses by the Obama administration, and you'll be glad if you can get a loaf of bread for $1000 (or, soon to be properly named, 1000 pieces of toilet paper). History is rampart with hyper-inflationary collapses-- I suggest reading up on some.

You are right to predict gas prices will go up next year. Surely, the $4 trillion dollars that the federal government just printed out in recent bailouts and stimuli are going to destroy the dollar like nothing before. But for now, no one's borrowing or spending that said money, as everyone's worried about tomorrow and saving, so it's just lining the banks' electronic coffers, for now, and is not in circulation.

You are deluding yourself if you think Democrats are any different than Republicans. They both piss on the Constitution the same amount. They both support bailouts for failing banks and corporations, huge government that constantly prints and devalues our money for its expenses, troops in Afghanistan and Iraq (2), less rights for me and you, and, ultimately, a lower standard of living for all but the government and those well-connected. Obama's does seem hellbent on one-upping Bush's failures in government interventionism. The change he so proudly boasts is one of changing and increasing the magnitude of Bush's failures (3).

(1) See USDX index-- was 100 in 1973, for reference: http://tinyurl.com/54rg9q. Notice how when gas was $4/gallon, the dollar was at its lowest value. And now that it's $2/gallon, the dollar is worth more. SURPRISE SURPRISE!
(2) Oh wow, look at that, Obama is going to leave tens of thousdands of troops behind as a "residual force"; I'm shocked -- http://tinyurl.com/5dcum5
(3) Obama's blueprint for disaster -- http://tinyurl.com/2opxuz. Reads like the ultimate dictator's wishlist. Let's see if he can one-up Bush on being one of the most destructive Presidents for American liberties and prosperity. FDR and Woodrow Wilson are still #1 and #2, in my book, though, for creating a mechanism for the federal government to steal wealth from the people (the Federal Reserve).

Also, if you wish to understand economics, as it is a rather exact science rather than a "manipulation".. head on over to http://www.mises.org

6:34 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Same poster-- here is yet another series of charts for you to see, exactly, what the Federal Reserve is doing with the value of your money: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

The M3, total money supply, is the most important graph; however, after March, 2006, the Federal Reserve stopped publishing this data (more government secrecy D:) and so it's only an estimate. Notice the decline in the money supply for most of 2008 corresponding to financial institution failures

6:48 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A long time ago I said Bush was invading Iraq becuase Saddam was going to get the oil sanctions lifted with a new vote in the UN within 6 months and he would be free to pump the world's second largest reserves of oil after ten years of sanctions.


Bush couldn't let that happen becuase it would have bankrupted his Saudi and Kuwaiti business partners who always funded Bush family investments becuase they were barely hanging on to power when oil was at $15 to $20 per barrel. Oil was at $20 a barrel then having risen from about $15 right after Bush's election in 2000. So Bush had to take out Saddam and fast before that UN vote becuase the UN vote to lift sanctions was less than 6 months away and Saddam had gone to Scandinavian countries and gotten pledges for enough votes to get sanctions lifted after 10 years.(The sanctions were placed on Saddam in an effort to get him out of Kuwait before gulf war 1 and of course he had long since been evicted 10 years earlier under Bush 1 and so Saddam was able to make the case the sanctions should be lifted in 2000.)

That huge amount of additional oil on the market would have lowered priced below $10 a barrel and the Bush family business partners and funders for 30 years - the kuwaiti's and saudi's ruling families would have been bankrupted and pushed from power. (people forget now but the saudi's were having extreme social problems and threats to their power when oil was at $15 a barrel much less below $10. There were books being written about the suspect fall of the house of Saud in the late 1990's.)

Besides Bush (through FERC) and Ken Lay had already directly worked together to shut down electricity plants in California to artificially cause scarcity in California and saw their profits SOAR - they knew what artificial scarcity did for the profits of those who controlled supply. ( I used to tell people Bush would do to the world what Ken Lay had done to California - Bush would "Enron" the world - and he did for the past 7 years. Keeping Saddam's oil off the market meant more than hundreds of billions of additional dollars went to Bush's Kuwaiti and Saudi Business funders every year and they reinvested it through Bush via funds like Carlyle - look up what they, Carlyle and their energy arm Riverstone, bought in the past 6 years with that money - ethanol capacity in North America, chip fab plants around the world, media around the world. They own it all now and will long after Bush is out of the White House. It was a brilliant plan really and they will likely get away with it. While it was fine to help the Saudi and Kuwaiti rulers who are friendly to the US to stay in power - the fact that Bush personally profited or will profit through his family investments is a real cause for a treason based impeachment since he really weakened the USA military and finances with this scheme and cost the US people billions in lost oil prices.

However the dramatic oil price drop we are seeing now is from the fact that, with the artificial war in Iraq about to be ended as a result of Obama's election, oil people now know there will be no more occupation to prevent the pumping of all that IRAQI oil. (Iraq has pumped less oil under the war than they did under sanctions before we went in this last time - that wasn't accidental. The American military could have easily protected the pipelines but instead left them unprotected so they could be repeatedly sabotaged in the same places. Leslie Stahl did a 60 minutes piece where she broadcast from one unguarded spot that had been sabotaged three times and still there was no US military guarding the spot or pipes.)

While people may not be finding many NEW oil fields (peak oil seems true as far as new discoveries go) - iraqi's huge oil fields have been known about for decades and are about to flood the market barring another "incident" in Iraqi to prevent it. (chaos prevents the wells from being run so prepare for a civil war there after we leave.)

But I suspect oil companies are pricing oil futures down to about an inflation adjusted pre 2000 price per barrel so perhaps just over $20 becuase they suspect that Iraqi oil finally might flood the market in a couple of years.

Furthermore there was an exemption to oil speculation trades registrations in us law which allowed foreign trades not to be registered. that loophole was closed by congress or the SEC (i forget which) when the oil prices were at $150 a barrel. They immediately fell below $100 a barrel within two months of that becuase those manipulations could no longer go untraced and they stopped.

www.vivzizi.com

9:12 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Have you ever heard of this magical thing called supply and demand?

http://blog.mises.org/archives/009062.asp

10:25 AM  
Blogger Brian Francis said...

Anonymous, I clearly threw supply and demand out the window when I said I believed this was a conspiracy. I don't believe the stars align in economics all that often, and all of these dramatic shifts in price are too close to the election for me to buy into simple supply and demand.

But I do agree with you that the Democrats are going to be no better than Republicans. I do believe Obama is different though, or at least the circumstances surrounding him will put the brakes on many of Nancy Pelosi's designs. I think we'll see a dramatic move to the center. If you support Bush, that means a shift left. If you support Obama, that means a shift left. I don't think it should be confused with out of control liberal spending.

6:10 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I completely disagree with this idea that oil prices were used to help the Republicans. Gas prices were highest in the summer. Why on earth would you spike oil in the summer, when so many undecideds are making their choice. I don't believe that Republican strategists figured declining gas prices would've helped them, since they also knew the economy would still suck in the fall.

And no, I don't believe for a minute that people were "undecided" in September or October.

-Jeff Rivers

8:13 AM  

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