Obama gains 3 delegates today.....
His magic number is now 119 delegates. He picked up a delegate each in Nevada, Kansas, and Maryland.
Hillary's last remaining argument is that Florida and Michigan should be seated as is. In the highly unlikely chance this happens, you need 1783.5 for a majority of pledged delegates(voted on delegates). This is seen as the threshold Obama or Hillary must pass to be guaranteed the nomination...as the superdelegates won't overturn the will of the people...i.e...the person who holds the majority of the pledged delegates.
If Obama gets his delegates from Florida....and the 55 uncommitted delegates from Michigan....he will be at 1735.5. To gain a majority, 1783.5-1735.5= 48 pledged delegates are needed on Tuesday to hold the pledged delegate majority with Florida and Michigan seated as is.
Obama and Hillary will basically split the delegates come Tuesday 52-51.
So on Tuesday night, under every scenario, Obama will be the pledged delegate leader. Chucky Todd made this point on the day Edwards endorsed. I did not include Edwards' delegates in my calculations.
This is why Hillary is pushing the Florida and Michigan votes to be seated AS IS. That would mean uncommitted doesn't go to Obama, and they are free to vote how they please. So that means Hillary can try to sway them to vote for her.
Rikyrah posted an article in the last thread on the specifics of the Nevada caucuses. Check it out.
Hillary's last remaining argument is that Florida and Michigan should be seated as is. In the highly unlikely chance this happens, you need 1783.5 for a majority of pledged delegates(voted on delegates). This is seen as the threshold Obama or Hillary must pass to be guaranteed the nomination...as the superdelegates won't overturn the will of the people...i.e...the person who holds the majority of the pledged delegates.
If Obama gets his delegates from Florida....and the 55 uncommitted delegates from Michigan....he will be at 1735.5. To gain a majority, 1783.5-1735.5= 48 pledged delegates are needed on Tuesday to hold the pledged delegate majority with Florida and Michigan seated as is.
Obama and Hillary will basically split the delegates come Tuesday 52-51.
So on Tuesday night, under every scenario, Obama will be the pledged delegate leader. Chucky Todd made this point on the day Edwards endorsed. I did not include Edwards' delegates in my calculations.
This is why Hillary is pushing the Florida and Michigan votes to be seated AS IS. That would mean uncommitted doesn't go to Obama, and they are free to vote how they please. So that means Hillary can try to sway them to vote for her.
Rikyrah posted an article in the last thread on the specifics of the Nevada caucuses. Check it out.
Labels: 2008 Election, 9-11, Afghanistan, Barack Obama, beats you need, Brian Francis, Congress, Conservative, Democrats, George W. Bush, Hillary Clinton, Independent, Iran, Iraq, Joe Biden, John McCain, Liberals, McCain/Palin '08, Obama/Biden '08, Osama bin Laden, Pakistan, Palin-Gate, Progressive, Republican, Sarah Palin, Sex
posted by Brian Francis at
5/17/2008
2 Comments
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